Trough of Disillusionment

The Gartner Hype Cycle gets flak for not really being a cycle and unscientific. All fair criticisms but the hype cycle does speak to an annoying pattern when there’s a new technology breakthrough – it comes with a tsunami of hype that causes damage.……“Technology “X” is going to cure famine and bring world peace”. No. It really isn’t. Generative AI is just the latest example of that sort of hype. Before that it was Big Data, Internet-Of-Things, Cryptocurrencies, Metaverse …you get the point.

It’s not that these technologies won’t have an impact, because many will, but the initial hype creates a FoMO (fear of missing out). This results in a rush of rash spending, mostly on expensive consultants, trying to figure out what this new widget does, praying it’s not too late to catch the “crowd”. When it finally dawns you’ve got more chance of finding the lost City of Atlantis with Google Maps the inevitable disillusionment follows. Interest and investment vanishes faster than your babysitter’s boyfriend hearing your car pull up on the drive after a night out. This is usually right about the time someone with half a brain in the company is getting warmed up to take a proper look, out only to find…..that ship sailed because the CFOs no longer signing the research cheques.

Most engineering folks at larger companies are smart enough not to get sucked into the hype vortex, but unfortunately, many of their senior leaders aren’t so tech-savvy. The consequences are more than wasted money because you’ll now have to wait for the bad PR to fade from memory before you get approval to have another look. Lost money and lost time.

There’s no doubt Generative AI is an amazing technology but it has two significant parts. The part that gets the most attention beyond the tech community is the accessibility because it doesn’t require you to have a PhD in machine learning to use it. The annoying smart-arse in sales can now interact using natural language interfaces and he’ll make sure everyone knows how clever he is. The bit that many don’t hear about is the part component of Generative AI which is the [[ Foundation Model ]]. Think of this as the engine (dare I say it….it is the “intelligence”). The Foundation model has a much broader range of use cases which sets it apart from previous incarnations of AI. However, it still has its limitations and doesn’t lend itself to all applications presently.

Understanding Generative AI’s limitations still requires a high degree of technical expertise, and even then tech experts don’t always get it right. Just look at examples of AI exhibiting even more bias than humans or making no difference in triaging patients at hospitals. What could go wrong with letting Johnny in sales have a play?

So what should you do? Hire a consultant….Just kidding. No short answer, but here’s my advice:

• You’ve got time – Adoption takes a lot longer than most people think. A lot longer.
• Figure out a valuable use case to learn – Yes you heard that right. Start with 1 use case.
• Pair the right skills – of business and tech expertise to figure it out. At the end of the day, AI is a tool to help your business so it needs people who have that business knowledge working the tech experts.

# TL/DR

The article explores the pattern of overhyped technological advancements, emphasising the eventual disappointment that follows when they fail to live up to exaggerated expectations. Generative AI is highlighted as the latest in a series of overhyped technologies, preceded by Big Data, IoT, and others. While recognising the potential impact of these technologies, the article criticizes the initial rush to invest in them without a full understanding of their capabilities or limitations. It then discusses the division of Generative AI into accessible tools and the more complex Foundation Model, which requires deeper technical knowledge to be utilised effectively. The article concludes by advising a cautious approach: take your time, focus on one valuable use case, and combine business and technical expertise to discover how AI can truly benefit your business.